⛵ The Memory Wall

Good Morning, Early Adopters!

The memory wall isn’t just a technical constraint; it’s a strategic one, reshaping how products are built, sold, and scaled.

AI

OpenAI Sidesteps Memory Bottlenecks with a Non-GPU Bet

👀 What’s happening: OpenAI signed a more than $10 billion agreement to source up to 750 megawatts of inference compute from wafer-scale AI compute provider Cerebras through 2028. The capacity is dedicated to running ChatGPT and reasoning models, shifting part of OpenAI’s workload away from Nvidia GPUs toward wafer scale systems operated as cloud services.

🌍 How this hits reality: Inference now consumes the bulk of new AI spend, and GPU economics are increasingly dictated by HBM pricing. With HBM accounting for close to half of high end GPU cost, supply tightness turns into deployment delays at scale. OpenAI’s turn to Cerebras reflects a hedge: a wafer scale architecture that sidesteps HBM dependence and keeps inference capacity expandable even as GPU supply tightens.

⛵ Key takeaway: This is a defensive move, not a performance flex. As memory tightens, OpenAI is securing an inference lane governed by power and capital, not HBM availability, reducing the risk of growth stalling on someone else’s supply chain.

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NEW TECH

Cheaper Ammonia Breaks the Scale Logic of Chemical Plants

👀 What’s happening: Ammobia claims it has materially altered the Haber Bosch process without replacing it. Its reactor runs about 150°C cooler and at roughly one tenth the pressure. The result is ammonia synthesis that looks familiar on paper but behaves very differently in practice.

🌍 How this hits reality: Conventional ammonia plants depend on extreme heat and pressure, forcing producers into centralized sites sized at 1,000 to 3,000 tons per day. Ammobia’s lower pressure approach supports 250 ton modular units, lighter equipment, and quicker ramping. That flexibility matters as ammonia moves beyond fertilizer into fuels, shipping, and energy storage with uneven demand.

⛵ Key takeaway: If the cost and reliability claims hold, ammonia stops being a mega plant commodity and starts behaving like modular energy infrastructure. That reshapes who can build plants, where they operate, and how quickly ammonia based markets can scale.

FSD

Tesla Ends One Time FSD Sales Moves to Subscriptions

👀 What’s happening: Tesla Inc will stop selling Full Self Driving as a one time purchase after February 14. Elon Musk says the driver assist system will only be available via monthly subscription. The shift ends an eight thousand dollar upfront option and reframes FSD as an ongoing service rather than a feature you own.

🌍 How this hits reality: FSD revenue now tracks usage not vehicle sales which matters as deliveries slow. Ten million active subscriptions unlock parts of Musk compensation. At ninety nine dollars a month that implies nearly twelve billion dollars annual run rate and ties autonomy progress directly to cash flow.

⛵ Key takeaway: This move pressures Tesla to ship visible autonomy gains faster. Subscriptions churn if value stalls. Expect more aggressive FSD updates and pricing tests.

BAY AREA MEMOS

• Appfigures reports that app downloads fell again in 2025, but subscriptions and in-app purchases drove spending to nearly $156B, with non-game apps surpassing games.
• Blackstone- and General Atlantic-backed Liftoff Mobile has filed for an IPO amid losses and a heavy debt load.
• Type One Energy raised $87 million ahead of a $250 million Series B to advance its stellarator fusion technology and licensing-based commercial plans.
• Alpaca raised $150 million to expand its API-based brokerage platform and global footprint.
• Oracle was sued by bondholders who claim it failed to disclose the need for major new debt to fund its AI infrastructure buildout.

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