5 min read

⛵ Starbucks Surrenders China

Plus: Musk’s Power Loop, The $40B Painkiller

Good Morning, Early Adopters!

Starbucks has conceded its China crown, ceding control to local capital after years of losing ground to cheaper, faster rivals.



RETAIL

Starbucks Surrenders China After Losing the Coffee War

👀 What’s the move: Starbucks is selling control of its China operations to Boyu Capital in a $4 billion deal, handing over up to 60% ownership of a market it once built from scratch. The Seattle chain will retreat to a 40% stake, collecting licensing fees while Boyu runs the show on the ground.

💡 Why it’s not boring: This isn’t “strategic partnership” spin; it’s an admission of defeat. Starbucks’ China market share collapsed from 34% to 14% as Luckin and Cotti flooded the market with 9.9-yuan lattes and algorithmic storefronts. The company that taught China how to drink coffee is now licensing its name to a local fund tied to political lineage. Luckin won the scale game, and Starbucks is settling for royalties.

Key takeaway: The empire that caffeinated China just outsourced its crown and called it “growth.”


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ENERGY

Tesla Eyes Samsung SDI for $2B Battery Pact

👀 What’s the move: Tesla is negotiating a $2.1 billion supply deal with Samsung SDI for up to 10 GWh of energy storage batteries over three years, with units aimed at data centers and grid systems rather than cars. The news pushed Samsung SDI shares up by more than 8 percent, as investors saw it as a sign that Tesla’s next growth engine will operate in substations instead of on highways.

💡 Why it’s not boring: Musk has long viewed America’s overloaded power grid as a design flaw that can be fixed through scale and storage. His idea is to build a distributed network of batteries large enough to stabilize both EV demand and AI compute loads. The partnership fits neatly into that plan, turning Tesla Energy into the backbone of a self-balancing, battery-powered grid that sells resilience as a service. This is not just climate technology; it is infrastructure arbitrage.

Key takeaway: While utilities patch the grid, Musk is quietly rebuilding it one Megapack at a time.


ACQUIRE

Kimberly-Clark Drops $40B on Kenvue

👀 What’s the move: Kimberly-Clark, the maker of Kleenex and Huggies, is spending $40 billion to acquire Kenvue, the former Johnson & Johnson consumer unit behind Tylenol, Listerine, and Neutrogena. The deal carries a hefty 46% premium and comes with serious legal risks, as Kenvue faces lawsuits over Tylenol’s alleged links to autism and its talc-based baby powder products. After the announcement, Kimberly-Clark’s shares fell 13% while Kenvue’s stock surged nearly 20%, reflecting opposite bets on who actually won.

💡 Why it’s not boring: This is a high-stakes rehabilitation attempt. Kimberly-Clark is not chasing innovation but rather scale, distribution leverage, and a household-name portfolio before private labels erode shelf space. Taking on litigation risk shows confidence in its ability to manage legal exposure, but it also reveals how few “clean” assets remain in consumer goods. The company is gambling that brand power and cost synergies will outweigh short-term reputational drag.

Key takeaway: Kimberly-Clark just spent $40 billion to trade margin pressure for market dominance, betting that courtroom headaches are still cheaper than losing visibility in the supermarket aisle.


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BAY AREA MEMOS

  • A $38 billion cloud deal between OpenAI and Amazon lifted Amazon’s stock over 4%, adding nearly $10 billion to Jeff Bezos’s net worth in one day.
  • Six Flags permanently closed its Maryland park after 50 years amid restructuring and losses, with plans to redevelop the site.
  • Amazon has launched the UK’s largest fleet of 160 electric heavy trucks and expanded low-emission delivery efforts to decarbonize its transport network.
  • a16z has paused its TxO fund for underserved founders and laid off staff as it integrates the program into its broader early-stage investment strategy.
  • TikTok announced its first U.S. awards show in Los Angeles to honor top creators and artists with a live, on-stage celebration.

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