Sep 12, 2025 4 min read Daily Rundown

⛵ Silicon Valley Survival Law

Plus: OpenAI Cuts Handcuffs, Credit Meets Real-Time

Good Morning, Early Adopters!

In Silicon Valley, survival isn’t just about building the next big thing—it’s about rewriting the rules in real time.

BUBBLE

Replit’s $3B Bet: Negative Margins, Positive Vibes

👀 What’s the move: Replit just banked $250M at a $3B valuation, a tripling since 2023, with Prysm, Google’s AI Futures Fund, Amex Ventures, a16z, and Coatue all leaning in. Its rivals Cursor ($900M at $10B) and Cognition ($400M at $10.2B) are running even hotter. But here’s the catch: Replit has admitted before that its gross margins dip below zero — meaning the more people code, the more money it burns.

💡 Why it’s not boring: The capital keeps flowing not because the numbers make sense, but because no one wants to miss the platform lottery. In the AI bubble, VCs treat negative unit economics as an acceptable down payment for future dominance. The real sin isn’t losing money — it’s failing to show up for the hype cycle while your competitors ride it.

⛵ Key takeaway: In this market, being wrong is survivable; being absent is fatal.

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BUSINESS

OpenAI Finally Cuts Loose From Microsoft’s Golden Handcuffs

👀 What’s the move: OpenAI and Microsoft just signed a non-binding deal that lets OpenAI restructure into a “normal” for-profit, clearing the way for an eventual IPO. The nonprofit will still get its $100B payout, but the real prize is OpenAI escaping exclusive ties to Azure and locking in a governance model Wall Street can underwrite.

💡 Why it’s not boring: This isn’t just corporate paperwork — it’s OpenAI cracking the glass ceiling that’s kept it half-startup, half-charity. Now the IPO runway is clear, which means Anthropic, Mistral, and even Google face a new competitor armed with public capital. For Microsoft, it’s a delicate trade: less control, but guaranteed pipeline access if AGI ever lands.

⛵ Key takeaway: OpenAI’s IPO story just went from rumor to inevitability — and everyone else in AI now has to price against a $500B public beast.

FINTECH

Figure Turns Warehouse Lines Into a Real-Time Market

👀 What’s the move: Fresh off its Nasdaq debut, Figure raised roughly $700M at up to a $4.7B valuation. But the real play isn’t the ticker symbol — Figure isn’t just another “crypto-adjacent” IPO. It’s listing a business that drags one of the most boring, fee-heavy corners of consumer finance — warehouse lending for loans like HELOCs — onto a blockchain-based auction rail.

💡 Why it’s not boring: By replacing weeks of opaque warehousing and forward-flow contracts with hourly Dutch auctions on Provenance, Figure slashes costs by over 100bps and makes credit pricing continuous. That’s not a buzzword RWA — it’s a structural shift in how credit gets funded and repriced, with transparency and immediacy baked into the pipe.

⛵ Key takeaway: Figure didn’t crypto-wash lending — it market-ized it. And when credit gets priced in hours, not weeks, the old warehouse model looks prehistoric.

STARTUP SPOT

🛡️ F5
“Deliver & secure every app.”
Multi-cloud platform for app delivery + security—WAF, DDoS, API, bot defense with AI.
→ Founded 1996; Nasdaq: FFIV; ~$5–6B revenue; CEO François Locoh-Donou; products include BIG-IP, NGINX, AI-driven protections.

🔰 CalypsoAI
“Inference-layer security for AI.”
Platform that protects generative AI & agents at inference: red-teaming, real-time defense, oversight & audit to prevent prompt injection, data leaks, policy violations.
→ Founded 2018; raised over $40M from Paladin Capital, Lockheed Martin Ventures, etc.; F5 acquiring CalypsoAI for $180M to integrate into its ADSP suite.

🪙 Gemini
“Regulated crypto for mainstream.”
Exchange + custody + staking + derivatives, anchored in compliance (US trust, MiCA license).
→ Founded 2014 by Winklevoss twins; IPO Sept 2025 raised $425M at ~$3.1B; 523K MAUs, 10K institutions, $18B AUC; $68.6M H1 revenue, still loss-making.

BAY AREA MEMOS

Crypto exchange Gemini raised $425 million in an oversubscribed IPO at a $3.3 billion valuation, though it remains unprofitable.
Former Google security executives raise $13 million for AegisAI to combat sophisticated email attacks with autonomous AI.
F5, a leading provider of application security and performance solutions, is acquiring AI security startup CalypsoAI for $180 million to strengthen enterprise AI protection.
The U.S. Justice Department is suing Uber again, alleging the company discriminates against riders with physical disabilities.
Tesla has received Nevada’s approval to begin autonomous vehicle road tests, advancing its robotaxi plans but not yet cleared for commercial use.

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