Jul 31, 2025 5 min read Daily Rundown

⛵ OpenAI’s Math Problem

More Stories: Adobe’s Ghost Price, Giants Run Your Health

Good Morning, Early Adopters!

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RACE

OpenAI’s 2025 Math Problem

👀 What’s the move: In just seven months, OpenAI doubled revenue to a $12B annualized clip. Impressive, until you notice it’s planning to torch $8B in cash this year, $1B more than forecasted just months ago. And they’re still out raising the second half of a $30B mega-round.

💡 Why it’s not boring: This isn’t growth—it’s acceleration into a wall of compute bills. OpenAI is pulling in SoftBank, Tiger, and Sequoia to keep the inferno going, while riding a user base of 700M weekly actives that mostly still don’t pay. The AI race isn’t about revenue—it’s about who runs out of money last.

⛵ Key takeaway: Burn rate’s the real AGI benchmark—and OpenAI is already on fire.

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IPO

Figma Goes Public Below Adobe’s Ghost Price Tag

👀 What’s the move: Figma IPO’d at $19.3B — a solid debut, but still under the $20B Adobe had once agreed to pay before regulators pulled the plug. That $1B breakup fee now looks like an expensive reality check: turns out, the open market didn’t value Figma higher than the M&A bid it walked away from.

💡 Why it’s not boring: Figma’s independence story just met its valuation ceiling. By betting it could outrun Adobe’s offer, the team overestimated how much investors would stretch for a design SaaS — even one growing at 46% YoY. Going solo gave Figma control, sure, but also stripped it of the M&A premium and exposed it to public market scrutiny. Strategic freedom now comes with a cap table hangover.

⛵ Key takeaway: Figma dodged Adobe’s embrace, but couldn’t outrun its shadow.

HEALTH

Your Health Records Just Got a Terms of Service

👀 What’s the move: Over 60 companies and 11 medical systems, including tech giants like Google, Apple, and OpenAI are teaming up with federal agencies to finally fix healthcare’s data mess. Think: your scattered lab results, prescriptions, and provider visits stitched into a single, AI-ready stream. From check-in bots to personalized diabetes tools, the race is on to make health apps actually useful—and your medical history actually portable.

💡 Why it’s not boring: This is the opening shot in the next platform war—health OS. Whoever builds the cleanest, most trusted interface for health data gets to own the ecosystem that wraps around it: insurance, care navigation, even preventive AI nudges. Apple owns your wrist, Google your search—now they want your chart.

⛵ Key takeaway: Whoever makes your health data make sense, wins your future.

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🪐 Firefly Aerospace
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Rapid-response small/medium launch + lunar/LEO services—from Alpha rocket to Blue Ghost lander & Elytra tugs → first commercial soft lunar landing March 2025, multi-launch Lockheed & responsive 24h Space Force missions.
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🧠 Ramp
“Let robots chase receipts.”
AI-native financial platform: corporate cards, bill-pay, spend management, travel, procurement, treasury + autonomous AI agents that enforce policy, rebook travel, surface fraud and reconcile invoices. Fully embedded finance ops logic from capture to close.
→ Founded 2019 by Eric Glyman, Karim Atiyeh & Gene Lee; >40,000 businesses served (e.g. CBRE, Anduril) at >$700M ARR; reached profitability in early 2025. Raised $500M in Series E‑2 led by ICONIQ (participation from Founders Fund, GIC, General Catalyst etc.), bringing total funding to $1.9B and valuation to $22.5B—a jump from $16B just weeks prior.

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Platform automates specialty drug access workflows—agentic AI handles benefits checks, prior authorizations, claims & appeals in minutes vs. weeks. Reduces wait to treatment from ~30 days to ~3 days doi: AWS-style workflow.
→ Founded 2024 by Will Yin (CEO) & Rohit Rustagi (COO); raised $40M seed + Series A in June ’25 from Greylock, SignalFire, Maverick, SV Angel, plus backers Jerry Yang & Guillermo Rauch. Deployed in 700+ clinics, serving 250K+ new patients/year.

BAY AREA MEMOS

Private equity-backed Firefly Aerospace is targeting a valuation of up to $5.58 billion in its upcoming initial public offering.
Microsoft's strong cloud and AI growth fuels record quarterly earnings, pushing its market capitalization to $4.1 trillion.
Breaches involving 'shadow AI' cost companies an average of $670,000 more, a new IBM report finds.
Fintech startup Ramp raises another $500 million at a $22.5 billion valuation just weeks after its last funding round.
AI-native observability platform Observe Inc. raises $156 million to accelerate product development and expand its go-to-market efforts.

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