Oct 30, 2025 5 min read Daily Rundown

⛵ Nvidia Hits $5 Trillion

Plus: AI Focus vs. AI Chaos, Silicon Valley Wants ASML

Good Morning, Early Adopters!

Fresh off Nvidia’s historic climb to a $5 trillion valuation, the AI world feels split between two futures.

MILESTONE

Nvidia Just Became the Market, Now Worth $5 Trillion

👀 What’s the move: Right after its Washington GTC showcase, Nvidia surged past the $5 trillion mark, only three months after it surpassed $4 trillion, becoming the first company in history to reach that valuation. The rally came after CEO Jensen Huang announced $500 billion in AI chip orders and a plan to build seven supercomputers for the U.S. government, solidifying Nvidia’s position as both the supplier and the architect of the AI economy.

💡 Why it’s not boring: This is not simply a stock milestone but a shift in global power. Nvidia’s Blackwell chips now sit at the intersection of politics, defense, and compute infrastructure. While Trump prepares to discuss those same chips with China, Nvidia has effectively turned its hardware into a tool of diplomacy. Every data center, language model, and military project now runs through Jensen Huang’s supply chain. The world’s most valuable company is no longer just a platform; it has become the physical foundation of the AI era.

⛵ Key takeaway: AI is not eating the world yet, because Nvidia already did.

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RACE

Google Prints $100B While Meta Burns Cash

📌 What’s happening: Alphabet just closed its first $100 billion quarter powered by a unified AI stack that stretches from Gemini models to quantum chips. Every division, from Search to Cloud to Waymo, posted double-digit growth. Across the valley, Meta’s Q3 looked strong on paper with $51.2 billion in revenue, but an $18 billion tax charge and ballooning expenses turned it into a cautionary tale. Meta’s costs grew 32 percent, its net income collapsed 83 percent, and Reality Labs keeps bleeding billions.

💡 Why it’s not boring: Google has found religion in focus: one AI architecture, one execution rhythm, and one message. Meta, by contrast, is still swinging between “AI superintelligence,” “AI glasses,” and “metaverse aftershocks.” Pichai’s engineers ship coherent infrastructure; Zuckerberg’s teams wrestle over org charts and cloud contracts. The market sees it too — Google’s capex is strategic, Meta’s is reactionary. Investors know who’s scaling AI and who’s subsidizing confusion.

⛵ Key takeaway: AI is exposing management more than technology. Focus compounds, chaos compounds faster.

CHIPS

Washington Blocks ASML, While Silicon Valley Builds Its Replacement

👀 What’s the move: Substrate has raised $100 million from Founders Fund, General Catalyst, and In-Q-Tel to develop a new X-ray lithography system that could rival Dutch company ASML, the world’s only maker of extreme ultraviolet (EUV) machines. The irony is sharp: while Washington leans on the Netherlands to ban ASML’s exports to China in the name of “national security,” it quietly funds a homegrown startup through In-Q-Tel, the CIA’s own venture arm, to dismantle that same Dutch monopoly.

💡 Why it’s not boring: ASML’s $400 million EUV machines power the global chip supply chain, from TSMC’s two-nanometer fabs to Nvidia’s GPUs. The U.S. government tells allies to restrict access, yet its investors are betting on Substrate to build a domestic alternative that bypasses ASML entirely. The message is clear: the rules are for others, but the frontier belongs to Silicon Valley. If Substrate’s X-ray process works, America will have turned its export ban into an industrial shortcut.

⛵ Key takeaway: Publicly, Washington defends ASML’s monopoly. Privately, it’s funding the revolution to destroy it.

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BAY AREA MEMOS

According to Reuters, OpenAI is preparing for an IPO as early as 2026, aiming for a valuation of up to one trillion dollars.
AWS has opened its $11 billion Project Rainier data center campus in Indiana to power Anthropic’s AI training and inference workloads.
Reflectiz raised $22 million to enhance AI-driven protection against third-party and open-source website risks.
Google is partnering with NextEra to restart an Iowa nuclear plant to power its data centers with zero-carbon energy.
Mastercard is reportedly in talks to acquire stablecoin infrastructure firm Zero Hash for up to $2 billion.

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