⛵ Morgan Stanley Maps Robotaxi

Good Morning, Early Adopters!

The market is interrogating who actually owns the stack, who carries the risk, and which stories still survive contact with reality.

ROBOTAXI

Morgan Stanley Maps Waymo’s Path

👀 What’s happening: Morgan Stanley released a new autonomous driving note that treats Waymo as a scaling business. The bank models robotaxi rides growing from roughly 400000 weekly trips today to over 1 million weekly rides by 2026. That implies sustained triple digit growth as Waymo expands fleets across multiple US cities.

🌍 How this hits reality: Morgan Stanley projects Waymo revenue reaching 2 to 3 billion dollars by 2030, driven by dense urban utilization rather than national coverage. In its base case, Waymo captures roughly 30 to 35 percent of US autonomous ride share, while Waymo plus Tesla together approach 70 percent of autonomous miles.

⛵ Key takeaway: My read is that this compliance first model travels better in Europe than in the US. Heavy regulation rewards Waymo style safety. In the US, Tesla’s faster deployment curve likely wins scale first.

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SIRI

Apple First Outsourced Siri

👀 What’s happening: Comments from Google executives during Alphabet’s Q4 2025 earnings call suggest the Gemini-powered version of Siri may run on Google’s own cloud and TPU infrastructure, not Apple’s. Apple never confirmed this, but its carefully worded privacy statements avoided the question. The gap between both sides’ language now looks deliberate rather than accidental.

🌍 How this hits reality: If true, this shifts where value and leverage sit. Siri is not a side feature. It is an entry point that touches search, reminders, messages, navigation, and daily habits across more than a billion devices. Running that intelligence on Google infrastructure means a steady stream of high value inference demand moving off Apple’s stack. Cloud share, AI platform influence, and long term learning loops would tilt toward Google, even if Apple keeps the interface.

⛵ Key takeaway: This would be Apple’s first real outsourcing of an entry level product’s core intelligence. The Siri brand stays with Apple, but the brains and compute live elsewhere. If that line is crossed, control shifts quietly and the ecosystem calculus changes fast.

QUANTUM

IonQ’s Revenue Story Collapses

👀 What’s happening: IonQ, the biggest quantum computing company, is under fire after a short seller, Wolfpack Research, accused it of overstating revenue by leaning on Pentagon earmarks that quietly disappeared when Congress flipped. The company denies wrongdoing, points to acquisitions and partnerships, and frames the attack as opportunistic. The market response was immediate. Shares dropped hard before stabilizing.

🌍 How this hits reality: This is not really about one short seller's report. In quantum, government money has long stood in for customer demand. IonQ’s case makes that dependency explicit. When as much as four fifths of revenue traces back to earmarks, explanations stop mattering. Budgets change. Politics shifts. Bookings vanish. Public investors now have to separate scientific promise from cash that only exists while Washington agrees.

⛵ Key takeaway: IonQ can argue the details forever, but the market already recognizes the pattern. Quantum hype backed by political funding is fragile. Until real buyers show up, revenue narratives will keep collapsing under scrutiny.

BAY AREA MEMOS

• Intel CEO Lip-Bu Tan said the company will build GPUs for data centers while pushing ahead with its foundry business.
• AWS’s European data center expansion is constrained by aging grids, with power connection wait times stretching up to seven years.
• Tyler Technologies acquired court transcription firm For the Record for $212.5 million to integrate AI-powered courtroom transcripts into its justice software suite.
• Bedrock Robotics raised $270 million in Series B funding to move toward its first fully operator-less excavator deployments later this year.
• Cerebras raised another $1B at a $23B valuation, reinforcing its role in large-scale AI compute with its wafer-scale WSE-3 chips.

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