⛵ Autonomy Reality

Good Morning, Early Adopters!

The next phase won’t be defined by who announces first, but by who survives scale.

ROBOTAXI

Waymo Embraces Simulation First Autonomy Reality

👀 What’s happening: Waymo introduced the Waymo World Model, a generative simulation system built on Genie 3 that produces photorealistic 3D driving environments with synchronized camera and lidar outputs to stress test systems. It can simulate tornadoes, floods, wrong way trucks, wild animals, and rewrite entire routes or weather conditions through language prompts.

🌍 How this hits reality: Waymo has logged nearly 200 million autonomous miles on public roads, yet billions more now run in virtual space. Instead of relying only on fleet data and high definition maps, it can generate rare long tail scenarios on demand. Engineers can test counterfactual decisions, alter traffic layouts, and stress safety systems without waiting years for real world events to occur. Validation shifts from collecting edge cases to manufacturing them at scale.

⛵ Key takeaway: Autonomy scales through simulation. On that point, Tesla was early. The race now centers on whose synthetic world becomes more trustworthy than reality.

TOGETHER WITH QODER

GLM-5 Just Launched. Now on Qoder

GLM-5 dropped today—Zhipu's biggest upgrade yet. The base model scales from 355B to 744B parameters, trained on 28.5T tokens. Benchmarks show it surpassing Claude Opus 4.5 on complex coding and agentic tasks.

The shift: from "vibe coding" to agentic engineering. GLM-5 is built for production-grade work—multi-step debugging, system architecture, and long-running agents that don't break mid-task.

Qoder added support on day one.

DRUG

Weight Loss Gold Rush Enters the Spray Era

👀 What’s happening: A Chinese biotech plans to complete global trials by 2028 for a nasal spray version of semaglutide, the same ingredient behind Wegovy, the blockbuster weekly weight loss injection. These drugs reduce appetite and drive significant weight loss. Novo’s China patent expires in March, and rivals are moving fast to seize the opening.

🌍 How this hits reality: Weight loss drugs have become a multibillion dollar race between Novo, Eli Lilly, and local players in China. Weekly injections costing hundreds of dollars created a premium tier. A nasal spray threatens to widen access and compress prices at the same time. Pharmacies, cosmetic clinics, and online channels could all become distribution points. As patents weaken, competition shifts from science to speed and scale.

⛵ Key takeaway: This is no longer just about one breakthrough drug. It is about who can make weight loss treatment easier, cheaper, and more accessible. The uncomfortable question is whether patient safety and long term health stay central once the gold rush truly begins.

EV

EV Collapse Is Now Visible in Battery Plants

👀 What’s happening: Stellantis is trying to exit its US battery joint venture with Samsung SDI after taking more than €22 billion in writedowns on EV and battery bets. The $2.5 billion Indiana plant only started production in 2024. It already walked away from its Canadian LG venture for $100 and froze expansion in Europe.

🌍 How this hits reality: This is a full unwind of the EV industrial surge. Billions were deployed on the assumption that EV adoption would accelerate under policy support. Instead, demand stalled, subsidies weakened, and capacity outran buyers. Plants built for autos are now pivoting to grid and data center storage just to avoid sitting idle.

⛵ Key takeaway: The EV downturn is harsher than forecast. When gigafactories become stranded assets within two years, capital discipline snaps back hard. Expect aggressive cuts, consolidation, and a faster pivot toward energy and AI infrastructure over cars.

BAY AREA MEMOS

• Meta is investing over $10 billion in a 1GW Indiana data center to power AI and core services, alongside clean energy and water restoration commitments.
• The U.S. labor board dropped its case against SpaceX, citing lack of jurisdiction and shifting oversight to the National Mediation Board.
• The U.S. Commerce Department fined Applied Materials $252 million for exporting chipmaking equipment to SMIC without the required export license.
• Fusion startup Inertia raised $450 million to advance its diode-powered inertial confinement fusion reactor.
• Amazon Pharmacy will expand same-day prescription delivery to nearly 4,500 U.S. cities, alongside its subscription and in-clinic pickup services.

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