⛵ $180B Self Defense Fire

Good Morning, Early Adopters!

The more powerful, automated, and futuristic our systems become, the more they depend on hidden human oversight.

BET

Google's 180 Billion Self Defense Fire

👀 What’s happening: Google disclosed plans to spend roughly 180 billion dollars on AI capex in 2026. Data centers, custom chips, cloud capacity. The number alone froze the room. This was not framed as expansion or innovation. It sounded like urgency. Wall Street sold because it felt reactive, not strategic.

🌍 How this hits reality: This is suicide style defense. Google is choosing to burn margins to block rivals from owning compute. Ads once funded everything with ease. Now capital intensity looks like heavy industry. Free cash flow compresses. Returns depend on near perfect AI monetization. One miss and the model cracks.

⛵ Key takeaway: Markets saw fear, not dominance. Google is spending to avoid losing, not to win. If this pace holds, the risk is not being out innovated. It is bleeding faster than the threat.

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SPACE

A Space Cannon With Promise Still Waiting for Demand

👀 What’s happening: SpinLaunch is advancing a centrifugal launch system that fires small satellites into the sky like a cannon. Payloads spin inside a vacuum chamber, store energy electrically, then release in one violent shot. The initial ascent uses no chemical fuel, only a small onboard engine to finish final orbit.

🌍 How this hits reality: The technical difference is real, but the market fit is narrow. Extreme acceleration near 10,000 G disqualifies most existing satellites, optics, and deployable hardware. Viable payloads must be compact, rugged, and standardized. That limits near term demand to simple comms or sensing missions, while much of today’s satellite industry remains incompatible.

⛵ Key takeaway: This is not a breakthrough with immediate commercial pull. It is a future option. If low Earth orbit shifts toward constant replenishment and disposable satellites, a fuel free space cannon becomes valuable infrastructure rather than a curiosity.

ROBOTAXI

Waymo Still Calls Home

👀 What’s happening: At a Senate hearing, Waymo executives confirmed their vehicles sometimes request guidance from human operators, including staff overseas, when situations exceed system confidence. The admission followed a recent pedestrian incident and questioning about edge cases. It reframed Waymo autonomy as supervised at a distance, not fully self contained.

🌍 How this hits reality: That contrast sharpens next to Tesla FSD, which runs without live human oversight and puts all decisions on the onboard stack. Insurers and regulators read this difference clearly. One model leans on remote labor and process. The other accepts full system accountability at the wheel.

⛵ Key takeaway: This helps explain why Lemonade priced discounts around Tesla while sidestepping Waymo. Markets reward systems that stand alone.

BAY AREA MEMOS

• Kalshi said a Super Bowl–driven surge in traffic and deposits caused some transfer delays, while assuring users their funds were safe.
• Bithumb mistakenly distributed about $40 billion in bitcoin during a promotion, prompting regulatory scrutiny despite recovering most of it.
• The EU’s preliminary findings say TikTok’s addictive design may breach the Digital Services Act and could force changes to its algorithms and interface.
• An unauthorized access incident at SoundCloud exposed data from about 29.8 million users, increasing phishing and scam risks.
• A small pro-billionaire march in San Francisco drew limited turnout but notable attention over opposition to a proposed billionaire wealth tax.

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